- July 21, 2004 at 6:18 pm #875
Looking at some of the latest numbers on [url:3tpg995n]http://www.rasmussenreports.com[/url:3tpg995n], it is impossible to say that it is not increasingly likely that President Bush is going to be reelected.
First, his Job approval/ Disapproval has gone from 49/51 [-2] to 53/47 [+6] today (July 21). At that rate of improvement, it could reach insurmountable levels by the Republican convention in late August.
Likewise, the President has gone from 44/48 [-4] in the head to head numbers, on July 12th, to 47/46 [+1] today. That doesn’t sound major, but it is. With 2% polling for [i:3tpg995n]other[/i:3tpg995n], there is only 5% of the vote in play. Kerry must take 4 of that 5 (80%) to insure his victory and the trends and his lack of a positive message to not suggest that is likely.
It must be alrming to Kerry that the Edwards pick actualy has translated into a net 1 point gain for Bush when a Kerry bounce was the obvious expectation.
The ramifications for the all important Electroral College projection is clear. The July 12th projection shows a 254-197 (+57) Kerry advantage with 87 considered “toss ups”. If you add the tossups, the numbers stood at 297-241 (+56).
However, Scott Rasmussen said this [i:3tpg995n]Kerry’s lead is more fragile than it appears. If the Senator lost a single percentage point in just four states (Florida, Missouri, Pennsylvania, and Ohio), President Bush would hold the lead.
Comparing where Bush stood, on that day, (44/48 [-4] head to head and 51/48 [+3] approval/disapproval) to today, (47/46 [+1] and 53/47 [+6]), it is very reasonable to conclude his position has improved.
Yet, there is reason to believe this improvement will continu.
2 days ago, the economic and invester confidence numbers reached their best positions in 6 months and the % of person’s who say we are winning the war on Terror has risen by a stggering 7 points since the Iraq handover June 28th.
Bushies like me, though not overconfident, are feeling a lot more comfortable than 6 weeks agoJuly 22, 2004 at 11:28 pm #3140
I subscribe to rasmussen’s [i:3txd62mx]premium[/i:3txd62mx] service and have access to information not available to most of the public.
One of the things they are doing is weekly, rolling samples of the all important battleground state of Florida (where Catholic Jeb Bush is the governor). the polling shows that the numbers have moved 11 points in Bush’s favor since June 29th (-8 to +3). That is an astounding improvement for such a short period of time.July 23, 2004 at 8:11 pm #3144
I don’t get into the numbers and that of politics. I prefer to read about the issues. I think all that political analysis is just a waste of time. Sorry, just my personal opinion. I can’t stand sports analysis either.July 24, 2004 at 4:04 am #3151
I think our country is at a very crucial crossroads
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